As Donald Trump prepares to re-enter the White House, his bold immigration policies are once again drawing global attention.
With hints of using the military to enforce mass deportations, African countries like Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa face a looming challenge. These nations, with significant populations of undocumented citizens living in the U.S., could bear the brunt of Trump’s proposed crackdown.
Trump’s Mass Deportation Ambitions
Donald Trump has pledged to carry out the largest deportation operation in U.S. history, targeting over 11 million undocumented immigrants. A recent post on his Truth Social platform revealed plans to deploy the military for this effort. Trump’s selection of anti-immigration hardliners, Stephen Miller and Tom Homan, to lead the initiative underscores his commitment to executing this controversial policy.
How African Countries Could Be Affected
Many Africans have sought opportunities in the U.S. over the years. According to the Migration Policy Institute, over 2.1 million sub-Saharan African immigrants resided in the U.S. in 2019, primarily from Kenya, South Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, and Nigeria. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows at least 30,000 undocumented Kenyans lived in the U.S. by 2020, a figure likely to have risen.
The potential deportation of thousands of Africans could have far-reaching implications. Professor Macharia Munene, an expert in international relations, warns that the return of deportees might exacerbate unemployment and economic struggles in countries like Kenya. “Most deportees are informal workers. Their reintegration might overwhelm already strained economies,” he said.
Diplomatic Strains and China’s Role
Trump’s deportation policy might also strain U.S.-Africa relations. Professor Munene notes that this could drive African nations closer to China, a rising economic and political partner on the continent. “China has mastered its geopolitical strategy in Africa. Any U.S. policy seen as hostile could benefit China,” Munene added.
Challenges in Implementation
Experts argue that Trump’s deportation agenda is logistically and financially daunting. Deporting 11 million people could cost over $315 billion, according to the American Immigration Council. The sheer scale and complexity of identifying, processing, and deporting individuals, coupled with potential resistance from local organizations, make this plan an uphill battle.
Impact on Kenyan Diaspora and Economy
Kenya receives significant remittances from its diaspora, particularly those in the U.S. In 2022, Kenyans abroad contributed KSh 600 billion to the economy. Danson Mukile, a Kenyan IT expert based in Washington, believes that while some economic impact is inevitable, it may not be as drastic as feared. “Legal immigrants and highly skilled workers are less likely to be affected,” he explained.
Expert Perspectives on Deportation Policy
While critics label the plan as impractical and inhumane, others see it as a wake-up call for countries to address illegal migration. Political analyst Javas Bigambo reassures that Trump’s policy targets undocumented immigrants, not those with legal documentation. “Law-abiding immigrants have little to worry about,” Bigambo said.
Professor Wycliffe Njororai of Stephen F. Austin State University also points out that mass deportations are politically charged rhetoric. “Deportations have always happened under all administrations. Trump’s grand promises may face the same challenges as before,” Njororai noted.
The Broader Picture
The global implications of Trump’s deportation policy extend beyond African countries. If executed, it could reshape U.S. migration dynamics, strain international relations, and create significant humanitarian challenges. For now, the world watches as Trump’s return to the White House brings immigration back to center stage.
