Former Cabinet Secretary and ex-Senior Economic Advisor to President William Ruto, Moses Kuria, has revised his earlier prediction on the 2027 presidential race—warning that Kenya is heading for its first-ever run-off.
Kuria, who once argued that the election would mirror Mwai Kibaki’s historic 2002 landslide victory, now believes no candidate will secure the constitutionally required 50% plus one votes in the first round.
Kuria: “No outright winner in 2027”
Taking to social media, the Chama Cha Kazi leader declared:
“For the first time, the winner of the Presidential Election will be decided in a run-off. There will be no outright winner in the first round.”
According to him, Kenya’s maturing multiparty democracy will produce several serious contenders, splintering votes and making a second round inevitable.
From 2002-style consensus to fierce competition
Kuria’s latest remarks mark a sharp shift from his June 2025 prediction, when he confidently told Citizen TV’s Jeff Koinange that the 2027 elections would be a consensus moment like 2002.
At the time, he said seasoned political leaders and respected elders would rally behind one candidate to avert division, just as opposition leaders united around Kibaki 23 years ago.
“There’s not going to be a contest in 2027. It will be another moment like 2002,” Kuria had insisted, warning that disunity could push Kenya down a dangerous path.
Why the U-turn?
The seasoned politician argues that the sheer number of aspirants and Kenya’s thriving multiparty system make it nearly impossible for one candidate to achieve a first-round win.
Among those eyeing State House in 2027 are:
- President William Ruto, seeking re-election
- Rigathi Gachagua, his former deputy turned rival
- Fred Matiang’i, former Interior CS
- Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua
- Eugene Wamalwa and Mukhisa Kituyi
- Former CJ David Maraga and activist Boniface Mwangi
While ODM leader Raila Odinga has remained coy about his 2027 plans, allies continue to send mixed signals—some hinting at cooperation with Ruto, others suggesting yet another Raila bid.
What Kuria’s prediction means for 2027
If Kuria’s run-off scenario holds, the race will mark a turning point in Kenya’s political history, forcing candidates into new alliances after the first round.
It also raises the stakes for coalition building, as parties will scramble not just to win votes but to survive into the decisive second round.
One thing is clear: the 2027 elections may not be the landslide Kuria once foresaw—but a bruising two-stage battle that will test Kenya’s political resilience like never before.
